Four years ago, 19 year old Rafael Nadal walked onto the red clay of the Roland Garros for the first time. He faced German Lars Bergsmueller in the opening round of the 2005 French Open. Nadal won the match easily, 6-1, 7-6(4), 6-1. Using that match as his launching pad, Nadal has begun forging an amazing legacy. He went on to hand Roger Federer a rare defeat as Nadal claimed his first Grand Slam title at the French Open. Since the 2005 Roland Garros, Nadal has lost twice on clay courts, once to Federer in 2007 that ended his clay court winning streak at 81, and once this year to Juan Carlos Ferrero. Nadal remains a perfect 21-0 at the French Open, and he will look to maintain that record and join Bjorn Borg (who has six titles at the French) as the only men who have won four French Open titles.
On the women's side of things, three time defending champions Justine Henin retired last week, shocking the tennis world. Now, instead of having one clear cut favorite, the women could have any number of people win it. It could be Maria Sharapova winning her second Slam of the year. Or maybe Serena Williams, who has crushed everyone but Henin in recent years, will put together another amazing run like she's done in the past. Anna Ivonovic, last year's runner up and this year's Australian Open runner up, could break through for her first slam, as could compatriot Jelena Jankovic. It should be an interesting two weeks for the women.
Seed Breakdown: Men
#1 Roger Federer- Despite never having won a title at Roland Garros, Federer has drawn the #1 seed again. The Slam seedings are generally based on world rankings at the time, and they usually are a very good way of seeding players, but in the case of the French Open, I truly believe they have to take into account the fact that Federer has lost to Nadal each of the past three years. That being said, Federer is also mired in the worst season he's had in a long time. Here it is, the end of May, and Federer has all of one tournament title under his belt. This is very uncharacteristic of him, so maybe he'll break through at the French Open and complete his career Grand Slam. No one is expecting him to win, so maybe the lack of pressure will allow him to make the adjustments he needs to finally capture this final Slam title.
#2 Rafael Nadal- As stated earlier, Nadal has never lost at Roland Garros, and he should be the favorite to win again this year. He has a nice draw too, he won't play a seed until the 4th round at earliest, and his toughest test before the finals should be Novak Djokovic, who he beat on clay last week. I'm predicting Nadal is 28-0 at the French by the end of this tournament.
#3 Novak Djokovic- He broke through for his first Slam win at this year's Australian Open. In my opinion, this man will be the next world #1. He has the game to compete on all surfaces, and he has the will to beat top flight players consistently. There is no love lost between him and his opponents. Djokovic is all business on the court, but he gets the job done. He should make the semis easily this year, as his hardest test should be Paul Henri Mathieu.
#4 Nikolay Davydenko- The Tennis Gods apparently do not like Davydenko for getting mixed up in all these gambling rumors. He has a potentially very tough draw should everything shake down properly. His first round match is against big serving Swede Thomas Johansson. Then in round two he could get the Russian head case Marat Safin, who has the skill to win any tournament he enters, but the fragile temperament of a Doberman. Then in round three Davydenko could face Ivan Ljubicic who was a top five player a year or two ago. Juan Carlos Ferrero, always a tough out on clay, could be waiting in the fourth round, before a quarterfinal match-up with David Ferrer. If Davydenko survives all this to make the semis again, his reward would be Roger Federer.
Quarterfinal Predictions:
#1 Roger Federer vs. #8 Richard Gasquet
#4 Nikolay Davydenko vs. #5 David Ferrer
#3 Novak Djokovic vs. #11 Thomas Berdych
#2 Rafael Nadal vs. #6 David Nalbandian
Semifinal Predictions:
Federer vs. Ferrer
Nadal vs. Djokovic
Finals Prediction:
Federer vs. Nadal (Is the third time the charm for Fed?)
Winner:
Rafael Nadal
Seed Breakdown: Women
#1 Maria Sharapova- I have never been a big Sharapova fan. I've always found her grunting and court antics a bit bush league, but even I cannot deny how dominant she has been this year. She stormed her way to an Australian Open win in January and could complete her career Slam with a win at the Roland Garros this year. A semifinalist last year, she should improve on that this year as there really is no one who should challenge her in her half of the draw.
#2 Ana Ivanovic- She is a two time runner up in Grand Slams. Last year she lost to Henin at the French, and she was crushed by Sharapova this past Aussie Open. Ivanovic has the game to win a Slam, but people are beginning to wonder if she has the mental fortitude to win one. A good measuring stick will be a quarterfinal match-up with Serena Williams.
#3 Jelena Jankovic- Last year at this time, everyone was saying how she would be the first Serb to break through and win a Slam, but the quick rise of Ivanovic has pushed Jankovic to the side... for now. Jankovic is a lot like Ivanovic, tons of game, questionable nerves. She has had the misfortune of playing Serena Williams in a few Slams, and beating her is an easy feat for no one. Jankovic should cruise to the quarters, where she will be tested by Venus Williams, but she should get through that and play the winner of Anna/Serena.
#4 Svetlana Kuznetsova- Kuznetsova is still hanging around at #4 in the world despite the fact that she has only ever won one Slam (way back in 2004). She has since been a runner up twice in Slams, but she seems to make it to the quarters of each Slam before crashing out. I expect much of the same this tournament.
#5 Serena Williams- Always the enigma, Serena Williams could easily win the French Open this year, or she could just as easily be dismantled by Ivanovic. That's part of what makes her fun. Sure, she's not the most gracious loser, and her grunting can be excessive, but when she goes on a tear it's a thing of beauty and you can't help but root for her.
Quarterfinal Predictions:
#1 Maria Sharapova vs. #7 Elena Dementieva
#4 Svetlana Kuznetsova vs. #6 Anna Chakvetadze
#3 Jelena Jankovic vs. #8 Venus Williams
#2 Anna Ivanovic vs. #5 Serena Williams
Semifinal Predictions:
Sharapova vs. Chakvetadze
Jankovic vs. S. Williams
Finals Prediction:
Sharapova vs. S. Williams
Winner:
S. Williams
Doubles Winners:
Men: Bob and Mike Bryan
Women: Cara Black and Liezel Huber
Misc:
So I join this pool every Slam called a suicide pool. It's pretty fun and there's still time to join. I won the French Open last year and got a coffee mug and a t-shirt. The link is here.
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